The Case-Shiller numbers are out and we've updated our monthly graph of the data to the right. As usual, we've included futures market data on the index from the CME to get a view of where the market thinks home prices are heading.
Granted, these future contracts barely trade. But it was interesting to see that the price of the June 2010 contracts got pushed down significantly. As you can see, continued declines in Bay Area homes are expected.
The real catalyst to real estate taking another hit will be when interest rates rise. Most economists expect this to occur in early 2010. That plays out well with the data in the graph.